Although U.S. presidents have sent subtle and not-so-subtle signals about whom they would like to see elected head of state in major countries, few have ever been as open and aggressive about it as Donald Trump and his administration in the race for president of Poland to be decided this Sunday.
In the last few weeks, the president was photographed at the White House shaking hands with Karol Nawrocki, historian and candidate of the nationalist Law and Justice Party. Nawrocki later told reporters Trump said to him: “You will win.”
Days ago, at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) held in Poland, Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem strongly endorsed Nawrocki and said of his opponent, liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski: “an absolute train wreck of a leader.”
Trzaskowski, candidate of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition and a committed supporter of the European Union (EU) and NATO, and Nawrocki are locked in a razor’s edge contest for the internationally-watched presidential contest for the Polish presidency — which, while less powerful that the office of prime minister, can nonetheless veto any legislation enacted by parliament, appointing judges and ambassadors, and helping craft foreign policy.
But the run-off in Poland on Sunday could also have a major impact on both the EU and the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. As Veronika Banski, a Polish student at American University, told Newsmax: “A Nowracki win might strain relations between Poland and the EU. Nowracki is showing more interest in strengthening ties between America and Poland, and openly speaking against EU policies, notably immigration.”
Banski also pointed out that the nationalist candidate “no longer wants to take in immigrants from Ukraine, even wanting to cut back on the aid they are currently given. In Poland, there has been a rise in anti-Ukrainian rhetoric. Some Poles are frustrated, saying that the Ukrainian immigrants only take handouts and live comfortably without working. Trzaskowski mentioned limiting aid to Ukrainians who work in Poland, but Nowracki, from my understanding, wants to cut aid entirely.”
But she also emphasized that “Nowracki is not pro-Russian by any means. In fact, many Poles have a fear of Russia attacking and taking over. Poland has a turbulent history, and for the most part, many Poles feel like they can’t trust anyone to protect them other than themselves.”
According to a just-completed Ipsos poll among likely voters, Trzaskowski ekes out a 51 to 49% edge over Nawrocki.
But there are ominous signs that Nawrocki will overcome his opponent. As mayor of Warsaw, Trzaskowski took decidedly left-of-center stands on cultural issues such as banning the display of religious symbols (including those on the desks of city employees), marching in a Pride Parade, and supporting Tusk’s proposal to liberalize Poland’s abortion laws.
In a country that is 71% Roman Catholic and in which 37% faithfully attend weekly Mass, Trzaskowski’s position — not to mention Tusk’s insistence on liberalizing abortion laws — clearly resulted in a stronger-than-usual showing for cultural conservative Nawrocki in the initial race two weeks ago.
“The first round results suggest [abortion opponents] are leaning against Trzaskowski,” wrote political scientist Henry Olsen of the Center for Ethics and Public Policy, “Trzaskowski received only 31.4%, barely beating Nawrocki’s 29.5%. But ominously the total votes for three other candidates from the centre or left combined for only 14.1%. Two candidates to Nawrocki’s right – one of whom opposes abortion even in the case of rape, which the current law permits – combined for 21.2%.”
That means, concluded Olsen, “the anti-abortion trio received a majority while the governing coalition’s candidates obtained only 45.5%.”
Whether that determines which candidate will win in Poland remains to be seen. For now, it is safe to say that the results in Sunday’s election will have impact beyond the borders of Poland — and will be watched and analyzed worldwide.
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